Come with me, if you will, on a trip back in time.
A trip back to the wild and murky days of early- to mid-October, 2004.
A mysterious time when "reports estimate" that the PSP will be between $250 and $300 (or, alternatively, "under $300" or "between 25,000 and 30,000 yen").
A time when, depending on who you ask, either there are "hints of delay," questions of "another delay" or "analysts forsee[ing] delay" of the PSP, possibly to November, 2005 (or, if you asked Sony, no delay).
Seems like ancient history now, doesn't it?
Just because the conventional wisdom was wrong this time doesn't mean that these sources were wrong to report it. But this should serve as a reminder to never simply assume the conventional wisdom as correct without further review.
Kudos, then, to Business Week for challenging the status quo and examining the case for a lower than expected PSP price point days before the announcement (as picked up by TVG, Gaming Horizon, Spong et al).
Kinda makes you wonder how accurate the election's conventional wisdom will be, eh?
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I'm excited about the US election even though I'm Canadian. We just came out of an election a few months ago and leading up to it all the newspapers were citing polls and pundits suggesting a Conservative victory by a large margin. Turns out conventional wisdom was way off the mark and the Liberals won. When it comes to foretelling the future (like the Sony PSP examples), the guesses by media sources are probably not much better than guesses by you or me. Things are always apt to change between now and then. Game related release dates seem particularly notorious for being changed.
ReplyDeleteBut if what's meant by "conventional wisdom" in regards to the election is not about the outcome, but about what the campaigns are saying through the media (like "John Kerry is a flip-flopper" or "George W. Bush is a moron"), then it's probably best to either ignore the whole lot of it, or as suggested in the blog post, look into it further to find what's real.