Friday, April 8, 2005

Were Journalists Sold on Sony's Sell Out?

Editor's Note: We're trying something new at VGO today. Dan Dormer, of late a writer for GameDAILY and GamerFeed, has accepted a request to do some occasional articles for the blog. The arrangement will be on a trial basis to start, but if everything works out then VGO will have a second blogger and I'll have more time to pursue other interests. Below is his first effort, edited by me. Let him know how you like it in the comments thread at the bottom, and don't be gentle just because he's the new guy. Also, please note this was written before Sony announced official numbers for the launch, and was delayed in posting due to some technical problems. Here's Dan:

Now that it's been almost two weeks since the launch of Sony's new portable handheld, the PSP, many news outlets, both mainstream and enthusiast, have written up reports on the success or failure of the launch. Did the accounts differ, or was there a concensus throughout? Was there breathless enthusiasm, or were the accounts more realistic? We looked at a few of the reports to find out.

The Seattle Times -- Despite the hype, Sony PSP no sellout in debut

A Slashdot post meant this article -- which picked up a report from The Dallas Morning News -- was one of the most popular accounts of the PSP launch numbers. The article leads off saying that, despite long lines of people and Sony cautiously declaring a sellout, "…retailers said yesterday they were surprised at relatively lackluster interest on launch day and still have PSPs sitting on store shelves."

The writer also mentions Internet message board accounts of units available in various locations across America. To back up these claims, the author contacted two retailers. One, a manager at Super Target, claimed he was surprised that people weren't lining up for the system on launch day. The other, an executive at GameStop, painted a rosier picture of success for specialty retailers, but added that he wasn't surprised non-specialty retailers didn't completely sellout.

The Nintendo DS gets a minor mention, but only as being $100 cheaper than the PSP.

This article paints the launch in a fairly positive light, indicating a partial success despite the lack of units sold at non-specialty retailers. The writer highlights the fact that PSPs were still widely available and includes quotes from local and national businesses in order to assess the situation on the amount of units available on multiple levels.

This is the only one of the reports we examined that didn't have any analyst commentary. A reader looking for a detailed account of the launch in terms of units sold and expectations would need to look elsewhere. It's possible that the reporter was unable to use such information because he got an early jump on the story, publishing two days before the other articles examined here.

CNN/Money -- PSP sales 'solid, not spectacular'

This report made heavy use of the American Technology Research survey results right from the get go. It points out that, in a survey of 150 retailers, 50 had sold out completed and 100 still had units remaining. The article also notes that 15 of the stores had three or fewer PSPs remaining.

One of the most important numbers in the article is a total sales range of "475,000 to 575,000," for the entire country. This was the only article we looked at to offer such a range -- others offered no definite numbers or used a median number. Going beyond just a single number in this case provides the reader with extra information, and the fact that the number come from an analyst strengthens the credibility for the reader.

The writer also mentions that Nintendo sold 500,000 units of their Nintendo DS handheld in the first seven days on the market during the holiday season.

The writer goes out of his way to make sure a distinction is made between specialty retailers, big box stores, and other places to purchase a PSP. He notes that specialty retailers nearly sold out, big box stores received more than they expected, and other retailers still have units available. This is important information to both consumer and investor readers, as it informs them where the most units were sold and where PSPs should still be available.

This article provides a very detailed account of the launch, using plenty of information from PJ McNealy's report. It makes sure to take care of both consumers and investors at the same time, and has helpful links provided throughout the article for those wishing to see the financial effects on companies carrying the PSP, or of Sony itself. The most careful of the four accounts in making sure to provide a range for the number of sold PSP units during launch, this article gets top honors from us.

Gamespot -- Analysts divided on PSP launch

This article makes use of multiple analyst reports on the PSP launch. There's Jeff Griffith, CEO of Electronics Boutique, PJ McNealy, American Technology Research analyst, and Mike Wallace, USB analyst. Each of these reports helps in constructing the entire article; looking at the unit, launch sale numbers, and possible long-term success of the PSP.

Interestingly, the author quoted Mr. McNealy's report that 50 out of the 150 stores surveyed had sold out, but made no mention of the total number of units sold. It's an odd choice, given the amount of information available to the writer through the three different reports.

The writer also used a few more quotes from the American Technology Research report to inform the readers on the short-term, post-launch status of the PSP. For long-term predictions, the author turned to the statements of Mr. Wallace, who predicted sales of 4 million or more units through the end of the year. He also goes on to predict that Sony's PSP will completely dominate the handheld market in two years. Mr. Wallace's comments provide the reader with further insight into the handheld battle between Sony and Nintendo that other articles didn't provide.

The article doesn't paint the launch too positively or negatively, making sure to show that the PSP had varied success. However, it doesn't give as much detail on how the launch numbers were split between specialty and big box stores. It might have been beneficial for the article to include such information, so that the reader could easily see the entire spectrum of success for the launch. Other than that, this account offers a good examination of the PSP's market viability by regurgitating reports.

1up -- Analyst Says PSP Sales 'Solid'

An extremely short article, the writer relies solely on the information in Mr. McNealy's report for American Technology Research. It uses the standard facts that the other articles had -– 50 of 150 stores sold out, 15 of the 100 with units remaining had three or less available -– with one glaring problem.

The writer reports that the PSP sold 575,000 units in the first week. The writer states that this is based off Mr. McNealy's estimates, but there is no mention that this is the high end of a suspected range. It's not clear where the writer misinterpreted the report or simply picked one end of the spectrum and stuck with it, but this oversight is a detriment to the article.

If it was a case of choosing between being succinct or providing more information than the reader might want to digest, it's always a toss up. You don't want to bog the reader down with unnecessary facts, but in this particular instance it would have made sense to include the full range in order to show that Mr. McNealy's statement wasn't definitive (the article does end by mentioning that Sony had not yet released official numbers).

This article lacks a lot of information present in some of the articles, and doesn't go out of its way to seek out alternate sources of information to educate the reader. It could have been helped a little with more information. This article doesn't cast the launch in a positive or negative light, like the rest of the articles we examined.

All in all, these articles seemed fairly realistic about the PSP Launch. Despiute grand statements from Sony, the authors looked to more independent sources of information and provided a balanced look at the launch numbers. This type of reporting is a positive example of how each and every writer should approach a story like this.

7 comments:

  1. I have a couple of comments about the numbers and how the media reported on them. For one thing, according to Sony it was 600,000 units in the first week ... which is more than the Nintendo DS in its first week. Why does that matter? Because the Nintendo DS was launched on the busiest shopping week of the year for $100 less ... and it STILL sold 100,000 units less than the PSP. Another thing, Nintendo has been the undisputed winning of the handheld race, and usually there's no competition at all. Generally a non-Nintendo handheld is kicked off the street within a year or two ... this is the first portable to really sell as well (and even better than) Nintendo's DS. No, the PSP's didn't sell out ... but are you really going to complain about 600,000 units in March?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I just have to shake my head at the logical leaps some analysts make. PSP first week sales of 5-6 hundred k and DS first week sales of 500k somehow equals, Sony will dominate the market in the next two years? From the reports, the PSP is much more available than the DS was. I just think analysts and media both are so intent to claim Sony the winner of the handheld market both before the PSP launched and now that it has lauched despite performing about the same as the DS in sales.

    ReplyDelete
  3. First, I think Dan did a great job in his posts and will really help this blog so that there may be more updates to it (although Kyle does a great job as well). Anyway, on to the handheld wars. This is not going to be a simple battle. The DS will have strong sales through its lifetime, largely because of its fan base. I've seen plenty of kids at school with them alreasy. However, when you ask most of the kids at my school what device they want, its a PSP. This information isn't exactly credible, because anyone out of high school has an easier time getting money for a PSP instead of a DS, but it should give you an outlook on the wars. This round may be a draw, but if Sony pumps out another system or lowers the PSP's cost, it will beat the DS or whatever the sequal to the GBA is going to be.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I have on theory as to why the PSP didn't sell even better than it did. I suspect that there are a lot of people like me who are willing to wait a year or so for the price to drop $100, like most systems do. $250 is a little steep.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Nice work, Dan.

    Dare I point out that 1up.com is closely tied to EGM (see several previous posts and threads about EGM PSP bias) and that the website gave away one PSP per day in March. They went with the high sales number instead of publishing Mr. McNealy's entire spectrum!? *Gasp!*

    I know that analyzing the reason behind there being no PSP sell-out is hardly the point of this blog, but here it does anyway: What about software prices? Given the versatility of the hardware and the quality of the display (even with a few dead pixels), justifying $250.00 for the unit is not hard. However, regardless of the power of a handheld, the game-buying public expects handheld software to be significantly cheaper than console games. $50 for third-party fare, $40 for the stuff that Sony publishes? Drop both ten bucks and things should pick up.

    ReplyDelete
  6. All you need is logic. Okay...what handheld system has sony ever made in the past? Okay...now that question has been answered. How many has Nintendo made? Don't need to answer correctly, but just think of the number. Now, think of the Playstation and it's dominance of the gaming industry. How many gaming systems has sony released total? Ahhh...are we getting somewhere with this? Okay, how many gaming systems has Nintendo released in total? Wow...a lot ne? Now...put 2 and 2 together. Sony's systems generally do really well in the gaming world. Just think about how awsome the Playstation did when released, and how even more so, the playstation two did. Suddenly, the company is releasing a handheld! OMGWTFLMAOBBQ! Yes, the anticipation can only be expected to be high. With Nintendo's reputation, you can't really expect much unknown from the DS. But Sony's first time handheld? Whoa...what's it gonna be like. Sure, we can read up on it, but how does it play and feel? Jebus I want one now! The numbers are not suprising.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nice work with the analyses, Dan. It's an interesting feat to scrutinize the differences between perception of something's success among any given grouping of media outlets.

    Personally, I find it more telling that despite the PSP having multitudes more games than the DS, DS software (at least in Japan) is outselling PSP software by the boatload.

    When you're dealing with systems as vastly different as these two, it's hard to comprehensively compare them and easily declare a winner and loser. Right now, despite the undying love for Lumines, the PSP is selling because of its non-game features and of all the hacks people are making for it. Once its initial flash wears off and it's no longer just a status symbol to have, we'll be in a better position to judge them.

    ReplyDelete