Which Came First... they Hype or the Interest?

Thanks to Ombudsman reader Erik Bondurant for point me to a post on his blog about what seems to be the hot topic of the moment (at least among VGO readers): PSP bias in EGM. Erik argues that EGM's bias lies not in a personal preference, but in an assumption of their audience's personal preference.

To me, it is unnecessary to predict success because too often, having the media predict serves only to influence what actually happens, or as I put it in the title, the bias of self-fulfilling prophecy. EGM thinks that Nintendo is doomed to second rank niche play while the PSP is destined to mainstream madness, well, that seems likely now that the impressionable teenagers and young adults who make up the largest and most active portion of the gaming market have been led to think the PSP is the system to own.

First of all, calling EGM readers the largest portion of the gaming population is a bit of a stretch. Most active, sure, and possibly most influential, but definitely only a small slice of a large and growing gaming market.

That being said, is EGM being presumptuous here? Is there any basis for assuming that "people are too hyped for the PSP," as EGM Editor-in-chief Dan "Shoe" Hsu said in a recent editorial? I asked him this very question.

"To a Nintendo fan, or a gamer who hasn't seen PSP yet, these may seem like preconceived notions," Hsu said, "but when I see the hype around this system -- not just from gaming magazines and websites but from industry people and retailers -- it's incredible how much buzz is behind the machine before it's properly launched."

Shoe points to a specific example -- cited in his editorial -- that illustrates the buzz.

(a local EB Games already has over 100 pre-orders just based on people walking in and seeing the manager's personal machine... for real)

Shoe also gave an anecdotal example of the the system's appeal to the mainstream public. While giving an interview to local show Stir TV, Shoe said that the producer and two cameramen asked to see the system and were "blown away."

True, these two examples don't amount to overwhelming scientific evidence that "people are too hyped for the PSP," but they certainly don't hurt. One can only assume that there are other examples that Shoe has come across in his daily interactions with gamers and game industry members that support his perception of buzz (in fact, he cited a few more to me, but they weren't quite as compelling).

Shoe says the buzz around the PSP has nothing to do with EGM's coverage. "People look to the gaming press as opinion leaders because we see this stuff before they do. But there's only a certain amount of reach that we have. It won't succeed just because we tell everyone to get one. Even if we don't cover system at all, it will still be a success. The minute it's in stores, in hands, people will understand why."

Erik says on his blog, "it is impossible to seperate sales from media coverage and decide whether the media is simply responding to the market or actually is shaping the market." He's right to an extent, and it's a little pointless to speculate which truly comes first when both are constantly feeding off each other. But I don't see any problem with commenting on any perception of buzz in an editorial, as long as you have some sort of evidence to back it up.